Recently, the two markets continued to fluctuate. Real estate stocks and financial stocks have all been adjusted back. The auto varieties have been “not moved”. Instead, they have accelerated their upward expansion against the market. Yesterday, the main index of the market was weak, and the Shenwan auto sector became one of only two rising industry sectors. According to analysts, the latest data shows that domestic automobile production and sales increased steadily in July, and the industry's prosperity continued to increase. Since August, new energy vehicle support policies have begun to enter the intensive release window, and auto stocks are expected to remain active.
July data is strong in the market. In July, domestic passenger car sales continued to maintain steady growth, and the decline in commercial vehicle sales also narrowed. According to the announcement of the China Automobile Association, in July 2014, domestic automobile sales were 1,161,100 units, an increase of 6.71% year-on-year. Among them, passenger car sales were 1,357,900 units, an increase of 9.72% year-on-year; commercial vehicle sales were 260,200 units, down 6.66% year-on-year.
In addition, in July, SUVs maintained rapid growth, but the growth rate declined, followed by MPV sales. Although some models were included in the MVP series by the micro-bus series in the statistics, the results showed some distortion. According to the statistics, the domestic SUV sales in the month were 293,300 units, an increase of 24.67% year-on-year; the MVP sales volume was 117,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 65.75. %. This also means that even if the statistical caliber factor is removed, the growth rate of the MVP market in July is still considerable.
From the whole market in the first half of this year, from January to July, passenger cars sold 7,000,400 vehicles, up 4.9% year-on-year; MVP sales were 100,100 units, up 56.60% year-on-year; SUV sales were 2,114,400 units. , a year-on-year increase of 35.70%; passenger car passenger car sales were 864,900 units, down 14.96% year-on-year.
Northeast Securities believes that this shows that the current domestic auto market has a clear dualization trend: on the one hand, the first car market has a large increase in space; on the other hand, the purchase of the first car at the peak of the car purchase in 2009-2010 is 50,000-100,000 yuan. Consumers are beginning to upgrade their consumption, and SUVs are more popular with such consumers, and demand is expected to continue to be released in the second half of the year.
The industry's sales continued to improve, and the demand for supporting car purchases remained strong. The above positive factors have given the automobile industry a rising level of valuation. Since June 24th, the Shenwan Automobile Index has risen 18.71% and outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 9.71 percentage points. Since the beginning of the year, the Shenwan Automobile Index has led the Shanghai Composite Index by 19.35 percentage points, with a cumulative increase of 26.63%.
Policy plus code to boost expectations In the high-speed transformation of traditional auto companies and the new energy vehicle concept represented by Tesla frequently detonated the market hotspot pattern, the trend of vigorously developing new energy vehicles has become unstoppable. New energy vehicles have risen to the strategic height of the medium and long-term countries. Different from 2009-2012, there are only directions and targets, but there is no rule. Since the second half of 2013, industry policies have followed the rain and promoted China’s new The development of energy vehicles is about to be implemented from the slogan to market sales. In particular, a number of industrial policies that have been introduced or are about to be introduced in the second half of the year have significantly exceeded the market expectations, and the entire auto sector will remain strong.
On August 6, the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Notice on the Exemption of New Energy Vehicle Vehicle Purchase Tax". From September 1, 2014 to December 31, 2017, the purchase of energy vehicles Vehicle purchase tax is exempted. Essence Securities believes that the exemption of purchase tax will greatly reduce the purchase cost of consumers and will greatly promote the growth of new energy vehicle sales. It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 100,000 this year. In 2013, this data only 1.76 million vehicles.
In addition, the national consumption tax reform plan will also be introduced in October. Among the measures related to automobiles are: reducing or eliminating the consumption tax on energy conservation and new energy vehicles; the consumption tax is changed to the retail or wholesale link in the production or import link, and the price is changed within the price; the central tax is changed to the local tax. It is expected that driven by the central baton, the enthusiasm of local governments for subsidies for new energy vehicles will increase significantly, and follow-up policies on subsidies for charging facilities, subsidies for about 70 subsidized cities that have not yet introduced subsidies, and some cities directly or indirectly cancel the restrictions on purchase restrictions. The benefits of the vehicle and vessel tax and insurance fee reduction policies will be available.
It should not be overlooked that the “Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles” issued last month further refines the construction of charging facilities, emphasizes the introduction of social capital, agrees to technical standards and is included in the scope of urban planning. To a certain extent, this has also relieved the worries of the charging pile standard problem that has plagued the large-scale promotion of new energy vehicles. Changjiang Securities believes that in the medium and long term, it is recommended to focus on new energy vehicles. Under the impetus of the construction of charging and replacement facilities and the willingness to consume, new energy vehicles will start a period of large-scale development; in the short-term, they will focus on those central and local interests. The core auto stocks of the specific implementation of the policy.