The US Department of Commerce announces the preliminary results of anti-subsidy, and the anti-dumping duty will be determined in May. The industry expects the sum of the two tax rates to be as high as 30%.

Transmitted to the United States photovoltaic products or face "zero profit"

It has been postponed three times. The US Department of Commerce finally announced the countervailing investigation results for China's solar photovoltaic products within the time limit: The preliminary rule is that China's solar photovoltaic products have export subsidies, and they will impose a 5% or less countervailing duty on these products.

A boot has landed and the solar photovoltaic community is waiting for the other boot to land. According to the procedure, the preliminary ruling on anti-dumping will be in May.

Although the countervailing duty rate is much lower than the industry's previous speculation, it is still a significant impact for the photovoltaic industry in the overall downturn.

The industry generally stated that instead of being controlled by others, it is better to open the largest photovoltaic market in China as soon as possible.

The company regrets that on October 19, 2011, the Solar World USA subsidiary of the United States, together with six other US manufacturers, filed a “double counter” survey application for Chinese PV products with the US Department of Commerce. The US Department of Commerce officially opened on November 8 of that year. File a case.

Since then, the U.S. Department of Commerce has postponed the announcement of the preliminary results three times, on the basis of the complexity of the case. According to relevant U.S. laws, the U.S. Department of Commerce must give a statement on the results of the investigation on March 20. According to the final decision, the preliminary results of the anti-subsidy investigation were announced on March 20th, and the preliminary determination time for anti-dumping was set at May 16.

In the application, the above 7 companies proposed to impose a 100% tax rate on China's solar photovoltaic products. China's photovoltaic industry is generally worried that the US Department of Commerce will give a survey result that is very unfavorable to China's photovoltaic industry.

However, the U.S. Department of Commerce concluded that China’s solar panel and battery makers received export subsidies from the government of 2.9% to 4.73%.

According to the preliminary results of the US Department of Commerce, solar cells exported by Trina Solar to the United States will be subject to a maximum 4.73% countervailing duty, the countervailing duty rate of Suntech Power is 2.9%, and the countervailing duty rate of other Chinese companies is 3.61%. .

This result is compared with the previous worst-expected tax rate of up to 100%, which is more symbolic than practical.

Andrew Beebe, chief commercial officer of Suntech Power, believes that most Americans need cleaner and safer new energy, and unilateral trade barriers will hinder this process. Andrew Beebe stated that Suntech also has a production base in Arizona, USA, and its products will not be affected by countervailing duties, and they can still provide hundreds of megawatts of photovoltaic products to the US market.

Mark Kingsley, Trina’s chief commercial officer, said that at present, only a preliminary ruling, the US Department of Commerce will have further investigations later this year, and make a final ruling. Moreover, whether the photovoltaic companies in the United States have been affected by China's photovoltaic products still depends on the US International Trade Commission's ruling. In the future, North American operations including the United States will continue to grow.

“The countervailing duty rate was not as high as the original imagination of the company.” Wang Zhenjun, deputy general manager of Solar Power Co., Ltd., told reporters during the US Department of Commerce’s investigation that the US Department of Commerce identified China’s solar photovoltaic products in the United States. Both Suntech and Tianhe acted as mandatory respondent companies, while other companies did active protest work. According to the company's responding materials, the US Department of Commerce believes that Suntech’s state subsidy funds are relatively small. Then Suntech gave a 2.9% countervailing duty rate. It believes that Tianhe’s subsidies are relatively more, and 4.73% are given. Countervailing duty rate.

Zhang Yanlin, research director of China Investment Consulting Group, believes that although Chinese companies have overcome difficulties during the anti-subsidy phase, they still cannot be taken lightly. Many PV companies in the United States have closed down, and the phenomenon of layoffs has continued to appear. This industry situation will make US businesses The ministry made judgments favorable to domestic companies. These are not good news for the double counter investigation.

30% tax rate is zero It is reported that the US Department of Commerce's ruling on anti-dumping duties will be issued in May this year, and the outcome of the anti-dumping duties will have a direct bearing on the "life and death" of China's photovoltaic products in the US market. Zhou Xiujie, a researcher in the energy industry of China Investment Advisors, pointed out that in general, the tax rate of anti-dumping is relatively high. A significant increase in the tax rate will inevitably increase the sales price of Chinese PV modules and weaken the overall competitiveness of Chinese companies. However, if the tax rate is low, it will be difficult to incite Chinese companies. The competitive advantage and leading position. But more experts are not optimistic about the final superimposed tariff. The industry expects that the final anti-dumping duty and countervailing duty in the United States will be between 20% and 30%, while the tax will increase by 30%. In other words, even the most competitive PV industry will lose its price advantage, and China's PV companies will basically lose the US market. According to the “New York Times” data, Chinese PV companies account for more than half of the US photovoltaic market.

In 2011, the amount of U.S. imports of photovoltaic panels from China increased from US$213 million in 2005 to US$2.65 billion. However, once the two-way friction between photovoltaic cells occurs between China and the United States, the United States will suffer even more damage. The size of China's photovoltaic cells exported to the United States will be 2 billion U.S. dollars, while the U.S. exports to China will have about 4 billion U.S. dollars in photovoltaic cell raw materials and equipment. The United States maintains a surplus of 1.88 billion U.S. dollars.

In November 2011, the U.S. Department of Commerce launched the “Double Anti” investigation. This Sino-U.S. trade war involves hundreds of thousands of jobs between China and U.S., thousands of companies, and nearly 10 billion U.S. dollars worth of trade. Once there is no winner in the war, both sides will lose. .

“The domestic photovoltaic products can be sold overseas. The main product quality and price are the main factors, and the price advantage is the key.” Wang Zhenjun said that if they are stacked together and reach a tax rate of 20% to 30%, then China’s PV product prices will not have Advantage. "If the industry's net profit can reach 20% -30%, then the company can also accept the results of the "double anti-", but the key problem is that the industry's profits are constantly being squeezed, simply do not reach such a high rate of profit."

Shen Hongwen, researcher of China Investment Advisor New Energy Industry Research Institute, said in an interview with reporters that at present, the cost of domestic solar PV companies selling solar panels in the United States is around 0.75 US dollars per watt. The average price of U.S. companies is about 0.97 U.S. dollars per watt. With the introduction of countervailing duties and anti-dumping duties, domestic photovoltaic companies may increase their tax revenue on photovoltaic cells exported to the United States by about 30%. This will cause domestic photovoltaic cell companies to lose their price advantage and lose their most important competitiveness.

"The difference between domestic and foreign countries is only 30%. If they add up to more than 30%, they will face outcasts." Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, said in an interview with reporters that if it is within 30%, then it is not worth making money. almost no profit.

"Originally 30% of the profits, and now only 1% of the profits left, then the significance of companies doing this thing is very small." Lin Boqiang said.

"Then only wait until the final results announcement, if the results are not optimistic, companies can choose to appeal." An analyst told reporters.

“At present, companies are considering whether to appeal.” China’s responding corporate lawyer, lawyer Li Lei of Sidley’s International Law Firm, said in an interview with reporters that if the company believes the appeal is not significant or the chance of winning is small, the company may choose not to appeal.

Zhang Jianmin, public relations manager of Suntech in Wuxi, said in an interview, “We will appeal if necessary.”

"be oneself"

In fact, the U.S. photovoltaic "double counter" investigation is also like a sword.

"US PV's dual-revolutionary' investigations have positive and negative implications." Li Hejun, chairman of the board of directors of the National Industry and Commerce New Energy Chamber of Commerce and chairman of the Hanergy Holding Group, said that the positive significance, in fact, can be adjusted through "double opposition". National solar energy structure upgrade. The negative meaning is what the industry does not expect to see, and Europe has followed suit.

To deal with trade protection in the United States and other countries, "Chinese companies must do their own thing and open up more markets," said Li Junfeng, deputy secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance.

In the general view of the industry, the world's largest and most promising solar energy market is the Chinese market. The former director of the National Energy Administration, Zhang Guobao, previously stated that China’s solar energy output is already the world’s largest. China's export of solar energy accounts for more than 50% of the world's trade volume, while 90% of China's domestically produced solar energy is exported to foreign countries, and only 10% is used domestically. The reason why the domestic solar energy market is underdeveloped is mainly because the current price of solar energy is much higher than other energy sources. In addition, China has not done enough in terms of policy support.

At present, the main products of domestic photovoltaic companies are not sold to the United States, but are sold to the European market, especially the German market. Shen Hongwen said that the industry is concerned that if Germany follows the example of the United States, it will launch a “double counter” investigation on China’s photovoltaic companies and will cause a fatal blow to the Chinese PV industry. At present, the German economy is affected by other countries in the European Union, and it is also in a difficult situation. The development of its photovoltaic industry is also under considerable pressure. Under this circumstance, trade protectionism has begun to rise. This is not a case for domestic PV companies. good news.

Zhang Yulin stated that China should reflect on its own industrial development policy and consider how to properly modify the subsidy policy for PV companies on the premise of adhering to WTO rules. At the same time, it should also actively promote the start-up and development of the domestic photovoltaic market.

Therefore, “the most urgent task at present is to open up the world’s largest photovoltaic market—the Chinese PV market.” Lin Boqiang believes that Chinese companies should treat this matter calmly, and that similar trade frictions will increase in the future. The Chinese government and enterprises should More “Do It Yourself”, strive to open up the domestic market, improve technical capabilities, and change the situation under the control of people.

Wang Zhenjun called for the industry to stop low-level redundant construction. The government determines the industry access system, guides the healthy development of enterprises, and restricts low-level enterprises to make high-tech products.