Falling rubber prices do not benefit downstream tyres

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Recently, the chemical product market continued to be affected by the decline in international crude oil prices. At present, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell back to the range of US$90-95/barrel. However, due to the poor profitability of chemical raw materials in the earlier period, it is expected that the follow-up decline rate will be smaller than the fall of crude oil. The polyurethane industry with better supply and demand was affected by the efforts of major manufacturers to limit production, and the price performance was strong. Polymer MDI and MDI rose by 2.9% and 0.8% respectively. Under the influence of poor downstream demand, liquid chlorine has a panic and low price (almost free in some areas), making the low start-up of chlor-alkali facilities spread to the central and western regions. The shortage of caustic soda supply has pushed up the price of caustic soda.

Recently, the price of natural rubber fell by 7.9%, and it has dropped by 11.9% in the past one month. Synthetic rubber (including butyl rubber, chlorobenzene rubber, etc.) that has an alternative relationship with natural rubber has recently fallen by 10%-15%. Butadiene, which is more sensitive to the market, fell sharply by 29.5%, becoming the latest decline.

There are two major factors in the sharp drop in the price of rubber raw materials. First of all, the short-term decline in crude oil prices does not provide cost-effective support for synthetic rubber. Middlemen and customers expect lower prices to advance and lower prices in advance. The pricing formula for some long-term orders is based on crude oil prices. Second, the price of natural rubber before was affected by non-market factors such as the Indonesian earthquake and the purchase and storage of Thai policies. At present, the main producing areas of natural rubber are all in the rubber tapping season, and the market supply is sufficient, while demand (mainly automobiles) is affected by the European debt crisis. Impact There is a continuous downside risk. In the long run, from the perspective of rubber planting growth cycle, ANRPC member countries have entered the rubber planting period since 2005, and the average annual new planting area reached 300,000 hectares in 2006-2008, which is 5-6 years in 2003/2004. Times, according to the growth period of 7 years, a large number of newly planted rubber trees will enter the tapping mature period in 2012-2015, which will bring a large amount of new supply, while the implementation of price alliances in the main producing countries is limited.

Falling raw material prices will bring down the cost of downstream manufacturers. Synthetic rubber and natural rubber will collectively account for 40%-50% of the manufacturing costs of downstream manufacturers. The rubber downstream is mainly used for tires and other rubber products. As China's tire industry is mainly export-oriented, it will be affected by global demand to a certain extent. Short-term decline in rubber raw material prices will bring about 1-2 quarterly increase in gross profit margin. However, as the domestic industry is highly fragmented, future costs will fall due to price competition. Offset possible. Non-tire rubber products companies benefited relatively. Listed companies include Baotong Unemployed, Shuangjian, Sanlux, and Zhongding.

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